På godt gammel latin betyder "præ dicere", "før at sige", hvilket har ført til det engelske "prediction". Og den slags behøver man hverken kaffegrums eller vølver for at komme med. For forudsigelser er blevet ren vox pop leg. Folkets stemme opløftes specielt hen mod slutningen af året, hvor internettets store gætteleg for alvor går i gang. Top 10 listerne er mange, og de fleste er faktisk ganske gode.
Min absolutte favorit fandt jeg her til aften hos Lefsetz. Hvis man interesserer sig for musikkens udviklingstendenser, hvadenten det er prissætning, distribution eller musikken i sig selv, vil man uvilkårligt støde på Bob Lefsetz. The Lefsetz Letters har i tyve år holdt hele branchen opdateret og oppe på beatet. Hans forudsigelser for musikindustrien i 2007 er skarpe, underholdende og provokerende - lige som den slags lister skal være.
Fx siger han om EMI:
04. EMI
Heading for disaster. Either this fiscal year, or next, the financials are going to tank, and then so will the stock. Gross mismanagement by those in power. Anybody with private equity money and a brain would snatch this company up in a minute. Because in the future, the catalog alone will be worth MANY billions. Because believe me, people will pay for music in the future, we’re in a temporary lull, where those in the know don’t know how to leverage their assets.
Og hvad med en om Bono?
07. Bono
Will continue to wear those phony sunglasses and try to save the world, sliding into irrelevance all the while. This is a band that needs experimental music released sequentially to regain its cred. But they’re too busy satiating their fortysomething audience, giving them exactly what they want, to matter. It would be like the Beatles releasing "Beatles For Sale" over and over and over again. How about another "Achtung Baby", babies?
Selvfølgelig får Zune et los i skridtet:
10. Zune
Already dead.
Play by the rules, and you’re history.
Squirt a track to another, if you can FIND another person with a Zune, and it expires in three days, to satiate the RIAA. What if you’re squirting a college lecture? What if you’re squirting the track of an unsigned band? REMEMBER, if you play by the RIAA rules, you’re DOOMED to failure.
Zune will limp along. Then again, Dell killed its DJ.
MTV = klask:
15. MTV
Will be less and less about music. The old days are NEVER coming back. And Fuse doesn’t matter. Video’s on the Web now baby.
Og ovenpå hans 31 punkts ranting svada, det tætteste man kommer på en positiv forudsigelse:
31. Respect
The key to the future.
And we haven’t had that spirit since 1969.
It’s a more close-knit society. Everybody’s equal on the Web. If you’re not concerned with the experience of your customers, you’re doomed to death. Give people something that touches their souls for a fair price and they’ll give you ALL their money. Rip them off with shit and they’ll tell everybody they know and decimate your enterprise.
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